ESRC Conference 2014
Diversity in macroeconomics: new perspectives from agent-based computational, complexity and behavioural economics
24-25 February 2014
The 2014 conference is co-hosted with the Economic and Social Research Council and organised by Sheri Markose from theDepartment of Economics. It will critically examine established thinking and bring together a range of new perspectives on identifying future directions for macroeconomics and policy.
Developments from at least three new branches of economics, agent-based computational, complexity and behavioural economics, arising from highly interdisciplinary studies of computational and digital technologies, complexity sciences and neuro-physiology of the brain, will be addressed.
- Critiques on macroeconomics by Charles Goodhart and Marcus Miller.
- New perspectives by Doyne Farmer, Eric Beinhocker, Eshel Ben-Jacob, Michelle Baddeley, Ithzak Gilboa, Sujit Kapadia, Paul de Grauwe, Sheri Markose and Kathy Yuan.
- Leading neuro-scientists Vittorio Gallese and Scott Kelso on mirror neurons and their role in social cognition, mimetic behaviours and also anti-coordination.
- Policy makers include David Miles (MPC), Laura Kodres (IMF), Luiz de Mello (OECD), James Richardson (HMT), Neil Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) and also those from five central banks.
- In response to concerns of students and the media on the lack of diversity in the economics curricula, the conference will hold a panel discussion, Why do we need diversity in macroeconomics? How do we build capacity in new approaches?, looking at pressing matters regarding engineering change on the ground.
- Panellists will include Mark Buchanan (Science Writer), Michelle Baddeley (University College London), Eric Beinhocker (Director, INET), Philip Davis (NIESR), Michel Ghassibe (President, Cambridge Society for Economic Pluralism), Mark Salmon (Cambridge University) and Adria Porta Caballe (Post Crash Economics Society, University of Essex).
The panel discussion, which is open to the public, will take place on Monday 24 February in the Ivor Crewe Lecture Hall at the Colchester Campus from 6.10pm - 7.40pm. Admission is free, however all those attending will need to book a place.
24 February 2014 : 9.00 am - 9.20 am Coffee and Registration
9.20-9.40 am Welcome and Introduction Slides
9.40 am -11.15 am : Chair - Marcus Miller (Warwick University)
Session 1:Developing Macroeconomics and Macro-Prudential Policy That is Fit For Purpose
-Macro-Prudential Policy : How to Design for Success, Charles Goodhart
( London School of Economics), Paper, Slides
-Forecasting and Monetary Policy Making, Neil Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
-OTC Derivatives Reforms : Considerations and Challenges, Mark Manning (Reserve Bank of Australia), Paper, Slides
Discussant Jagjit Chadha (University of Kent) Slides
11.15 am – 11.30 am Coffee
11.30 am -1pm: Chair - Marco Galbiati (Bank of England)
Session 2: New Macroeconomic Models and Management of Extreme Dynamics
-Behavioural Macroeconomics, Paul de Grauwe (London School of Economics) Slides
- Leverage in Financial Markets: An ACE model of Portfolio Choice and Trading, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé (University of Leeds and NHH - Norwegian School of Economics), Tenje Lensberg (NHH - Norwegian School of Economics) and Dan Ladley (Leicester University), Paper, Slides
-Agent-based Models for Systemic Risk, Doyne Farmer (Oxford University) Slides
Discussant Alistair Milne (Loughborough University) Slides
Lunch 1.00pm – 2.00pm
2.00pm -3.30 pm : Chair - Guilia Iori (City University)
Session 3 Dealing with Complexity and Uncertainty in Macro Dynamics
- Endogenous Macro Dynamics From Large Numbers of Simple Agents, Robert Axtel (Visiting Oxford University, George Mason University), Paper1, Paper2
-Taking Uncertainty Seriously: Simplicity versus Complexity in Financial Regulation, Sujit Kapadia, David Aikman, Emma Murphy and Tobias Neumann (Bank of England), Gerd Gigerenzer, Mirta Galesic, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos and Amit Kothiyal (Max Planck Institute for Human Development)
- Modern Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Hedgehog or Fox? Marcus Miller (Warwick University), Lei Zhang (Warwick University) Paper, Slides
Discussant : Marco Raberto (University of Genoa) Slides
3.30pm –3.45 pm Coffee
3.45 pm – 5.15 pm Chair: Marco Francesconi (University of Essex)
Session 4: Economic Growth After Liquidity Trap and Bubble Economy: How To Rebalance the Economy ?
-Credit for Growth and Credit for Bubbles, Richard Werner (University of Southampton), Slides
-Solving Collective Commons Problems: Future Scenarios for P2P Finance,
David Hales (Open University and University of Szeged, Hungary) Slides
-Fiscal Policy After the 2007 Crisis, James Richardson (Her Majesty’s Treasury)
Discussant : Oliver Burrows (Bank of England) Slides
6.00pm-7.40 pm Ivor Crewe Auditorium
Panel Discussion : Why Do We Need Diversity in Macroeconomics ? How To Increase Capacity in New Approaches ? (Free to Public)
Chair : Sheri Markose (University of Essex)
Panellists : Mark Buchanan (Science Writer), Slides, Eric Beinhocker (Oxford, INET), Philip Davis (NIESR), Michel Ghassibe ( President, Cambridge Society for Economic Pluralism),
Michelle Baddeley (University College London) and Adrià Porta Caballé (Secretary, Post Crash Economics Society, University of Essex)
Conference Drinks 7.40pm - 8 pm Upstairs Foyer of Ivor Crewe Hall (By invitation only)
8pm Conference Dinner Wivenhoe House Hotel (By invitation only)
Laura Kodres (IMF) After Dinner Speech Paper
25 February 2014
9.15am -10.50 am: Chair - Doyne Farmer (Oxford University)
Session 5: New Foundations for Social Cognition and Strategic Interaction: Coordination, Anti-Coordination and Innovation
- Mirror Neurons and Simulation Theory of Social Cognition, Vittorio Gallese (University of Parma), Slides
- Neuromarkers for Social Coordination: A Dynamical Approach, Scott Kelso (Florida Atlantic University and University of Ulster)
- Mirroring and the Liar Qua Rule-breaker: Complex Strategic Behaviour and Arms Race in Novelty and Surprises, Sheri Markose (University of Essex) Paper, Slides
Discussant Rahul Savani (University of Liverpool) Slides
10.50am – 11.05am Coffee
11.05 am – 12.40pm : Chair - Rob Axtell (George Mason University)
Session 6: Models of Radical Uncertainty and Inductive Decision Making
-Social Intelligence and Collective Decisions, Eshel Ben-Jacob (Tel Aviv University and Sagol School of Neuroscience) Slides
- Beliefs and non-Bayesian Modes of Reasoning: With Some Reflections for Policy Making, Ithzak Gilboa (Tel-Aviv University and HEC, Paris), Paper, Slides
- Macroeconomics with Human Sentient and Social Actors, David Tuckett (University College London), Paper, Slides
Discussant Michelle Baddeley (University College London) Slides
1.40pm–3.15 pm: Chair: Roland Meeks (University of Essex)
Session 7:On Holistic Systemic Risk Approach: Statistical and Structural Macro-nets
- Measuring Contagion Potential Among Sovereigns and Banks Using a Mixed-cross-section GVAR, Marco Gross and Christoffer Kok (European Central Bank)
-Network Risk and Key Players: Structural Analysis of Interbank Liquidity Kathy Yuan (London School of Economics, ESRC Systemic Risk Centre) and Edward Denbee (Bank of England) Paper, Slides
-Multi-Agent Financial Network Models for Systemic Risk Monitoring and Design of Pigou Tax for SIFIs (Acefinmod Group, Essex) Simone Giansante (University of Bath), Sheri Markose (University of Essex) and Ali Rais Shaghaghi (University of Essex) Paper1, Paper2 and Slides
Discussant: Oto Tomohiro (Bank of England) Slides
3.15-3.30 Coffee Break
3.30- 5pm: Chair Paul de Grauwe (London School of Economics)
Panel Discussion : What do Policymakers Need frosm Macroeconomics, and What Needs to Change to Get it?
David Miles (Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England, Imperial College),
Neil Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Luiz deMello (OECD),
Laura Kodres (IMF) Slides, Wouter Den Haan (London School of Economics)
Close of Conference